September, 2002

It seems few in this nation share the administration blood-lust for war with Iraq but George Bush, Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and Condi Rice. The Five.

Not the Secretary of State, the Congress, the United Nations or our allies. Certainly not the generals who must win this one, if winning is even a relevant or obtainable goal. Not the public, at least not as represented in growing editorial opposition. Not even Henry Kissinger, that hawk-of-hawks, or the former Bush, Sr. presidential advisors.

And one wonders why The Five are so adamant, when any number of other Muslim or Arab countries pose the greater threat to American security.

1. Pakistan already has nuclear weapons and continues as the refuge of choice for al Qaeda.
2. Saudi Arabia produced (by way of citizenship)15 of the 19 September 11th terrorists and continues to this day to be the major financial backer of al Qaeda.
3. The bin Laden family was flown out of the US immediately after planes were once again allowed to fly, by private Royal Family aircraft, without submitting to a requested FBI interview.
4. Osama bin Laden is himself a Saudi citizen.

Yet neither Pakistan or Saudi Arabia seems to pose the threat the Bush administration attributes to Iraq.

The President tells us an Iraq war will be as easily won as Afghanistan. We have won precious little in Afghanistan. The Taliban has been hurt and dispersed, but hardly defeated and coalesces even now for a renewal of hostilities. The newly formed government dares not venture outside Kabul. What liberation, what success has been achieved? Afghanistan, if we are to prevail, will (like Bosnia) require 20 years of armed occupation and untold billions in capital improvement. The military and political conditions there are coming apart in our hands even now.

Yet The Five conspire, five people absolutely determined to take us to war in Iraq.

Well, then let them make their case to the American public.

They have not yet made their case. Despotism in Iraq is not a case. Despots abound in the Middle East. The possibility of Iraqi terrorist support is not a case, compared with the reality of terrorist support in Pakistan, Yemen, Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Nuclear possibility is not a case, considering nuclear reality in Pakistan. Allegations are not enough. Indeed, unless American society is prepared to become a pariah throughout the world, the Bush doctrine of preemptive war must not stand.

Preemptive war has no precedence in our history. During the forty years of standoff between Soviet and American interests, preemptive war was never an acknowledged possibility. Now that mutual annihilation is no longer a threat to America since the fall of communism, a doctrine of preemptive war shows us merely as bullies, able and (worse yet) willing to extort and coerce. The Promise of America throughout the world dies with such a doctrine.

If this tyranny of The Five is allowed to prevail,

* The ensuing war is estimated to cost $100 billion.

* Energy and gasoline prices will soar.

* Iraq will certainly lob scud missiles into Israel, because Israel has said it will respond militarily this time, shattering fragile coalitions and bringing the entire Arab world in on the side of Iraq.

* The already wounded American economy will be required to absorb the costs of the war, as well as the huge oil price increases. Either would be too great a load in its present weakness. Taken together, the market will topple from its knees to flat-on-its-back.

* House-by-house fighting in Baghdad will be a certainty (read Black Hawk Down).

* Afghanistan (already destabilizing) will collapse into chaos.

* Given that scenario, nuclear Pakistan cannot be relied upon to remain neutral.

* Saddam, in the his last moments will destroy the already mined oilfields, as he did in Kuwait, leaving a smoking, burning pile of wreckage across Iraq.

* And thus, Osama bin Laden will have achieved all of his stated goals to bring the Muslim-Christian world into a final and devastating mutual Crusade.

This war is not about terrorism, not about nuclear capability, not about germ warfare, civil abuse or the freedom of nations and peoples. It's about what it's always been about, it's about oil, profit, control and power.

The difference is, that what it's always been about has never before been established as a matter of American foreign policy in the aggressive language of preemptive strikes against any nation we perceive to be a threat. Regime change. If the tyranny of The Five is allowed to stand, the historic world-view of America will be seen as a lie and we will have become what the Soviets always called us, Imperialists.

The American people are not and have never been Imperialists!

American citizens, if they care for their legacy of freedom, if they value the brilliance of their founding principles (and principals), if they are unwilling to watch an inept, uneducated, socially isolated president throw their legacy down a sewer, must not let this tyranny of five prevail.

This is not a time for blind faith in our government. It's a time to stand firm, to make ourselves heard, to become involved in the democratic processes we take for granted. The metaphoric barricades are no further than your own PC. Write your government, your newspaper, your friends---they all have e-mail addresses. If you don't write, join those who do, if by nothing else but your signature or the forwarding of opinion.

And if I'm wrongheaded, write to me (freeman@vol.cz).

But in any event, begin a dialog so that we don't end up somewhere very far from our origins by the design of a mere five people. This is not global warming, this is the global integrity and reputation of our nation.

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